Chennai's WeatherMan AK NorthEast Monsoon (NEM) Special Update

Most parts of Tamilnadu getting rains from Yesterday with Easterlies penetrating into interior Districts giving rains all over. Monsoon Onset will be announced on 17th October from IMD if all criteria are satisfied.

Entire Tamilnadu will get good rainfall for the Next Days from the Circulation Near Comorin Sea. A good start to our Monsoon this Year. School Pasanga will be very happy eagerly sitting in front of the TV for the most important announcement only people who never miss listening to any weather Forecast.

So What to Expect this NEM?
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The first thing to remember is no one can't predict NEM so much accurately due to its erratic behaviour and lack of study in its connections. Giving my outlook with what I have learnt so far with observing monsoon in the Past Few Years.

October- December (NorthEastMonsoon/Post Monsoon Season/Retreating Monsoon)

Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram (KTC) until Pondicherry stretch has a good possibility of getting Normal Rainfall this monsoon.

West Interior Tamilnadu (Coimbatore, Salem and adjoining districts), South Tamilnadu (Madurai, Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari etc. and Kerala has chances to get Above Normal monsoon rains.

So for Tamilnadu coastal areas where crucial rainfall is contributed by NorthEast monsoon will get its share for Sure. Expecting a Super November month with with
Normal December rains.

Technical Explanation of my Forecast (Explained in very simple terms for easy understanding)
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IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole)
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This Year Indian Ocean Dipole is Positive which means in North Indian Ocean Arabian Sea is warmer than of Bay of Bengal. It will trigger more Low-Pressure Systems on the Arabian sea rather than that of Bay of Bengal. This is one of the Strongest Positive IOD. So increasing chances of Rainfall over SouthTamilnadu/West Interior Tamilnadu and Kerala.

The Bay of Bengal will be active but the frequency of High Intense systems will be less. High Intense Systems like Severe Cyclones usually tend to climb in Latitude (Chances of moving towards Odisha/WestBengal/Myanmar Coast) disrupting monsoon flow in TN coast for Few days. These types of Scenarios will be very less this year. We will not waste our Precious monsoon days.

Why Weaker Systems always Favour TN?
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Weaker the System more the Possibility of getting closer to Srilanka, Gulf of Mannar or TN coast can induce good Steady and Continous rainfall for Tamilnadu coast at least for 3-4 days due to its Slow-moving nature. In Past many years, all Normal/Above Normal Rains are from Weaker Systems which can turn down our rainfall table into Normal in very short Period of Duration

MJO (Madden Jullian Oscillation)
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It's an Eastward moving pulse of Convection which makes circuit globally Favourable Phases of MJO supporting Northeast Monsoon is Phase 3 or 4 which can trigger a pulse in Bay (Subjected to its Amplitude (Strength) )

Most of the Years when MJO is in Phase 3 or 4 we had good NorthEast Monsoon rainfall Hope that Happens this Year too. If West pacific ocean is active even Remanant pulses can move to our Bay of Bengal and triggered as Weather Systems

El-Nino/La Nina
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This Year is Neither a Nino or Nina year (Warmer or Cooler of Central Pacific Nino3.4 region) This is just a Neutral Year.

AO (Arctic Oscillation)
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It has very little relation with our Monsoon deciding the path of Weather Systems in the Bay of Bengal. Most of the Stronger Systems do Recurve or poleward movement scenarios happen due to this Oscialltion which brings Western Disturbances (Strong Cold air over North India in Upper Levels) embedded in Stronger Systems over Bay. Deciding the Strength of Ridges.

Ending up Technical Explanation here.

Conclusion
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We all know how this Monsoon is close to our Hearts. It could have created many sweet also bitter memories for Everyone in the feel not everyone is lucky to get. Chennaities are very special in this aspect also Before asking about Floods let all our Lakes and Reservoirs get filled First.

Sadly this year I will be missing enjoying NorthEastMonsoon Days but my past good old days of watching rains through my windows still linger in my heart.

Some unforgettable days in my life is during this Monsoon. Even though I'm not in Chennai will try to provide all important updates whenever required as possible.

Have a Happy Monsoon!
Ajith Kumar - Chennai's Weatherman