Early to decide with models struggling to pick Strong cyclone or weak low anything can happen with 10 more days left. Until then enjoy evening thunderstorm rains from 25th April.
April or May won't favour Tamilnadu but rarely Laila in 2010 and Roanu can happen to bring some rains and a short break for summer. But luck should favour us.
Three Factors to check:
1) Genesis Point (Place of Formation) crucial role to decide Path. For the least hope, it needs to happen near South West Bay near Srilanka to target Tamilnadu.
2) Cyclones have high vertical buildup and take the 200mb (12km in height) Wind path. Andaman or South East bay formation will smoothly pull it to Myanmar.
3) Arabian ridge is far west unlike in NorthEast Monsoon to favour pulling system towards TN.
So bye-bye to Rains if that happens, the Worser part is moisture suck by the Cyclone leaving Tamilnadu in terrible heat and above Normal temperatures until the distracted winds get back after the cyclone makes landfall or weakens there.
Supportive Factors in a glance:
a) MJO - Phase 2 in IO so the Arabian Sea can also take a
the chance also a small trigger for the Bay of Bengal
b) Equatorial Rossby Wave - little-known phenomena to make
cross-equatorial wind flow.
c) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) - Super high Due Sun's direct overhead heating excellent feed for Cyclone
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