Rains over Kerala will reduce after 11th August

Does May Cyclone in Arabian Sea affect Monsoon onset or rains over Kerala ?

Onset date when May Cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea from 1948

1960 – 11.05.1960 Yemen  Cyclone recurve to North West  - 14th May Onset over Kerala (Early)

1961 – 23.05.1961 Karnataka/Goa Cyclone  -18th May Onset over Kerala (Early)

1963 – 18.05.1963 Yemen  Cyclone - 31st May onset happened over Kerala (Early)

1970  – 29.05.1970 Oman Cyclone -  26th May Onset over Kerala (Early)

1973 -  May Depression Somalia caused a delay in Monsoon 7th June onset in Kerala (Late)

1974 - 17.05.1974 Cyclone to Gulf of Aden  onset in Kerala on 26th May in Kerala (Early)

1975 - 01.05.1975 Cyclone in Central Arabian Sea 30.05.1975 Depression to Maharashtra onset              in Kerala on 31.05.1975 (Early)

1976 -  31.05.1976 Cyclone to Gujarat (Ahmedabad ) landfall on 6th June onset on the same day of formation (Early)

1985 - 28.05.1985 Cyclone to North Arabian Sea parallel to the Indian coast(Marginal Cyclone ) onset declared on the same day (Early)

1999 - 22.05.1999 Pakistan Cyclone Category 3 Onset over Kerala declared on the same day (Early)

2001- 28.05.2001 Landfall on Gujarat as Depression. Onset on Kerala in 23rd May when it intensified as Cyclone (Early)

2002- 10.05.2002 Salalah Cyclone. Onset in Kerala over 29th May (Early)

2004- 05.05.2004 10.05 Cyclone parallel to Gujarat onset over Kerala in 18th May 29, 2020 (Early) Significant Point: 18cm rainfall over Lakshadweep with 11cms in just 24hours

2010- Cyclone formed after onset which touched Oman and recurved to Pakistan Onset in Kerala on 31st May (Early)

TAKEAWAY: Most of the Cyclones which move over SouthEast Arabian Sea during May triggers Early-onset over Kerala. Cyclones near the Gulf of Aden or Somalia affects Monsoon onset as the Major Feature of Cross Equatorial Flow a.k.a Low-Level Jet is affected. Also, there is a huge gap between Cyclones and Onset over Kerala 




Points to Note: 

1) There is no relation between Onset dates and Monsoon rainfall

2) Weaker Systems lesser than Cyclone is not considered in this Compilation 

3) There are many instances where Cyclones Formed (In Monsoon trough) after  Declaring Onset which is not taken into account

4) Bay of Bengal Systems are not taken into account

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