Initial NorthWest Movement and thereafter North-North East move is expected from Amphan. Outermost band of Cyclone have chances to fall over North Tamilnadu or Chennai if it moves very little distance to our coast. But Let's wait until the Cyclone Formation happens to assume how tightly the rain bands are wrapped and also the path. But Probability is very less and hard luck should happen.
Coming to the heatwave once the system moves away from our latitude it will bring Brutal Dry moisture sucked land winds from NorthWest over Chennai. Keeping above normal Temperatures. Many of the times it has happened and we should bear it until the system completely fizzles out.
Thunderstorms rains possibility
As the System will drag moisture-laden winds from the Arabian sea. Kerala will get isolated heavy rains mostly in ghats. 17th and 18th looks good for Interior Tamilnadu to turn for Thunderstorm rains and if lucky coastal like Chennai will catch rains. Also, Interior Karanataka and Bangalore will get.
Path of the Cyclone
Honestly, it has confused me a lot and I underestimated MJO Strength. Strong Kelvin wave seen in action. Warm Bay waters with Moderate shear in decreasing trend. Models are taking a Strong Cyclone to Odisha/WestBengal/Bangladesh taking the highest hit target. Much better than a North East recurve.
Bay branch of Southwest Monsoon likely to get activated with onset over Andaman Coast. Expecting Early-onset to happen in Kerala with criteria conditions met around may last week.
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