May Cyclones over Tamilnadu - Is Genesis point making a play?

Low Pressure has formed in South Andaman today. Initially, it will move NorthWest to Central Bay from here further intensification will decide the outcome for Tamilnadu. Worst Scenario is recurving to  Myanmar/Bangladesh system bringing Heatwave to Tamilnadu and AP.

So, In Climatology perspective (Past events) let's check the probabilities of May Systems attacking Tamilnadu or Indian Coast. This is a Rough estimate from IMD E-atlas data based on Genesis Point (Place of Formation) no other factors like Ridge, Teleconnections
(MJO, AO) is considered. 

I'm not good at Stat or math for more detailed data. So please bear with me. Kindly apologize if this data has any errors

Genesis Point Analysis - 1) South-East Bay (Andaman) Area

From 1891-2019 Data there had been 21 Strong Systems (Depression+Cyclones) no weaker systems included. Out of which only 4 has Touched the Indian mainland. None of them had touched Tamilnadu.

List of Systems touched India on SE bay genesis

• 1914 (13-05-1914) Gopalpur Cyclone.
• 1925 (12-05-1925) Machilipatnam Cyclone
• 1979 (06-05-1979) Nellore Cyclone (Rains in North TN)
• 2019 (3-05-2019) Fani Cyclone (Odisha) Strongest one to hit Odisha   

This area is not favourable making Hit Probability 15% to India and 0% for Tamilnadu (Direct Impact). Most of them had direct NE Curve to Myanmar/Bangladesh.

Genesis Point Analysis - 2) South West Bay (Srilanka) Area

There had been 39 Strong Systems (Depression+Cyclones)

List of which have impacted Tamilnadu

• 1909 - Nagapattinam
• 1930 - Nagapattinam (Weird track of Travelling through Karnataka and Andhra)
• 1943 - Madras Cyclone
• 1949 - Nellore Depression (Rains over North TN)
• 1955 - Pondy Depression
• 1962 - Madras Cyclone
• 1995 - Pondy Depression
• 2010 - Laila Cyclone (North Coastal TN battered)
• 2016 - Roanu (Travelled Entire South East Coast till reaching Myanmar)

This area is much better for India giving Probability of 54% chances of hitting and 23% chances for Direct hit in Tamilnadu out of 39 Systems analyzed

So now already Low Pressure has formed near Andaman SE bay but if consolidation (Strengthening) didn't happen there and happen near South West Bay then Tamilnadu would take a chance rare May rains.

With MJO leaving our Basin Rapidly. We need to wait for the models to pick consistency among them. Lack of Aircraft data during this pandemic for generating model outputs has been blamed for less consistency even in Short Range.

Personally, I like ECMWF with good accuracy in the Synoptic Scale (Weather pattern over Large area) and also their sophisticated and demonstrably better data assimilation system for running model output. Hoping for the best to happen in Tamilnadu for a short escape from Kathiri Veyil 🙂

Comparison GIF of Various Weather models on the same time frame are attached below